{"id":1947,"date":"2025-03-17T19:26:57","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T19:26:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2025\/03\/17\/can-canadas-new-prime-minister-mark-carney-win-trumps-trade-war\/"},"modified":"2025-03-17T19:27:04","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T19:27:04","slug":"can-canadas-new-prime-minister-mark-carney-win-trumps-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2025\/03\/17\/can-canadas-new-prime-minister-mark-carney-win-trumps-trade-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Canada\u2019s New Prime Minister Mark Carney Win Trump\u2019s Trade War?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
Mark Carney, a former central banker, replaced Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader as the country faced a trade war with the United States. Minas Panagiotakis\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Canada\u2019s new prime minister, Mark Carney<\/a>, has promised to take a hard line against the U.S., pushing back on tariff and sovereignty threats from the Trump administration while reining in government spending at home. But his fight with Washington may collide with economic reality: tariffs could tip Canada into recession, requiring more government spending, not less.<\/p>\n

\n<\/section>\n

Carney, sworn into office on Friday (March 14) after replacing incumbent Justin Trudeau in Liberal Party elections, is an expert in managing economic crises. He previously led the Bank of Canada during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit from 2016 to 2020. Winning 85.9 percent of Liberal Party members\u2019 votes, he promised that Trump\u2019s trade war would not threaten Canada\u2019s sovereignty. \u201cIn trade, as in hockey, Canada will win,\u201d he said in his victory speech earlier this month.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, the U.S. imposed a 25 percent blanket tariff<\/a> on most imports from Canada. (The tariffs were\u00a0later lifted for automobiles and goods protected by the 2018 US-Mexico-Canada trade deal).\u00a0Oxford Economics<\/a> and Canada\u2019s Desjardins Group, the largest federation of credit unions in North America, expect<\/a> that the 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods could push the country into recession. The Canadian government has since retaliated with a 25 percent tariff on $21 billion<\/a>\u00a0worth of U.S. steel and aluminum exports.<\/p>\n

The U.S. tariffs could be the final blow to Canada\u2019s already ailing economy. Stephen Johnston<\/a>, director of Omnigence Asset Management in Calgary\u2014a major Canadian asset management group\u2014argues the country is already in stagflation: the economy grew only 1.2 percent and 1.3 percent<\/a> in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Even before the tariff threats, Canada\u2019s labor productivity was slowing, housing prices were skyrocketing, and per-capita real GDP declined in 2024.<\/a> The OECD expects Canada to experience the lowest economic growth<\/a> between now and 2060 among its 38 member nations.<\/p>\n

The economic picture being painted is at odds with Carney\u2019s proposal to cap the federal workforce expansion, limit spending, balance the budget within three years, and run only a \u201csmall deficit.\u201d While likely helpful to the Canadian government\u2019s long-term balance sheet, modern Keynesian economics suggests a weakening economy requires more investment and stimulus to jumpstart growth. These are the same fiscal policies major economies used to end recessions during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic\u2014tools Carney knows well, having expanded the money supply and increased liquidity as Governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008.<\/p>\n

Carney\u2019s economic austerity promises are an attempt to strike a balance between the Liberal Party\u2019s tradition of generous spending and the growing threat posed by the Conservative Party\u2019s platform of fiscal cuts. Carney is set to face off with Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre<\/a> in national elections this October, which could end his premiership shortly after it began.<\/p>\n

Carney has agreed to meet with President Trump \u201cunder a position where there is respect for Canadian sovereignty,\u201d he said in a statement on March 12. Negotiations will be a crucial step toward ending the ongoing trade war between two historically allied countries, but they mark only the beginning of a long road to recovery for Canada.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\"Can<\/p><\/div>\n