{"id":19683,"date":"2025-12-31T19:54:58","date_gmt":"2025-12-31T19:54:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2025\/12\/31\/michael-burrys-big-bets-still-move-markets-even-when-hes-wrong\/"},"modified":"2025-12-31T19:54:59","modified_gmt":"2025-12-31T19:54:59","slug":"michael-burrys-big-bets-still-move-markets-even-when-hes-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2025\/12\/31\/michael-burrys-big-bets-still-move-markets-even-when-hes-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Burry\u2019s Big Bets Still Move Markets\u2014Even When He\u2019s Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
Even when his calls miss, Michael Burry\u2019s reputation keeps Wall Street watching his every move. Astrid Stawiarz\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Michael Burry<\/a> earned a whopping $800 million by shorting the U.S. housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. Whether the famed investor has made comparable money since then is far less clear. Still, his reputation endures. Investors continue to closely track his high-profile bets, hoping to ride his coattails to similar gains.<\/p>\n

\n<\/section>\n

Burry ran the hedge fund Scion Asset Management and now publishes commentary through a weekly newsletter, though he discloses little about performance. He has also repeatedly deleted and reactivated his X account over the years, but remains active on the platform, where he has roughly 1.6 million followers and frequently posts cryptic market takes.<\/p>\n

His celebrity status was cemented by the 2015 film The Big Short<\/em>, which turned Burry into a household name. That visibility has granted him a level of credibility few investors retain for so long, even when their predictions miss the mark.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople like superstars, and they love to listen to folks who they think are smart and successful,\u201d Tom Sosnoff<\/a>, founder of investment media network Tastylive, told Observer. \u201cHe is a personality and a contrarian. He is interesting and pretty famous in the world of finance. Love him or not, people listen to him.\u201d<\/p>\n

While Burry\u2019s early success is well documented, his performance since then is harder to evaluate. As a hedge fund manager, he is only required to disclose limited information through quarterly filings such as 13Fs, which reveal long equity positions but not short positions, derivatives or overall performance. As a result, the full picture of his gains and losses remains largely opaque.<\/p>\n

There have been claims that Burry has made more than $1 billion in total trading profits, but those figures have never been independently verified, and his fund has never been publicly audited.<\/p>\n

Nvidia and Palantir in the crosshairs<\/h3>\n

Despite the uncertainty around his track record, Burry\u2019s words still move markets. His recent bearish bets against Nvidia<\/a> and Palantir<\/a> have drawn particular attention, with Burry arguing that both sit at the center of an A.I.-driven market bubble.<\/p>\n

On Nov. 3, regulatory filings revealed that Scion had placed roughly $1.1 billion in bearish options positions tied to those companies. The structure of the trade\u2014largely long-dated put options\u2014gives him time for the thesis to play out rather than requiring an immediate downturn.<\/p>\n

\u201cHis timing was very good,\u201d said Sosnoff. \u201cHe pretty much got short Nvidia near the top (around $200), and it\u2019s now down 10 percent to 15 percent. It\u2019s a good call.\u201d<\/p>\n

Palantir, which represents Burry\u2019s largest short at roughly $912 million, has not fallen as sharply. The stock is down about 7.8 percent from its Nov. 3 level. Still, because the position is structured with options expiring in 2027, some analysts say it\u2019s far too early to judge.<\/p>\n

\u201cHis logic is extremely good, and he has over a year to be right,\u201d David Trainer<\/a>, CEO of A.I.-driven investment research firm New Constructs, told Observer.<\/p>\n

Trainer, a former hedge fund manager, also backed Burry\u2019s broader critique of A.I. hyperscalers, arguing that companies such as Oracle<\/a> and Microsoft<\/a> are using aggressive accounting practices, particularly around GPU depreciation, to flatter earnings.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese companies are definitely using questionable billing and receivables to make their earnings look better,\u201d said Trainer. \u201cI can\u2019t say if Burry has been right or wrong in previous trades, but I think he has made some money. \u201cThis time [with the A.I. Bubble], he seems right.\u201d<\/p>\n

The cult of the contrarian<\/h3>\n

Not everyone is convinced. Matthew Tuttle<\/a>, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management and a frequent contrarian himself, said Burry\u2019s post-2008 track record is far less impressive than his reputation suggests.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you look at the calls Burry has made since 2008, they have not been good,\u201d he told Observer. \u201cHe has said \u2018this is going to crash and that is going to crash\u2019 many times since, and he hasn\u2019t been right.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, big bearish bets tend to attract attention precisely because they go against the grain.<\/p>\n

\u201cAny time someone makes a major down call, there\u2019s a fascination with it as long [bullish] calls are always okay because the market always goes up,\u201d said Tuttle.<\/p>\n

That dynamic helps explain why hedge fund stars can remain influential long after their best trades are behind them.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I\u2019m the main character in a movie and in a book like Burry and have been right in a big way, that buys me a lot of getting things wrong,\u201d added Tuttle.<\/p>\n

The same dynamic applies to other market personalities such as Robert Kiyosaki<\/a>, Peter Schiff<\/a> and CNBC\u2019s Jim Cramer<\/a>, whose reputations often outlast their accuracy.<\/p>\n

\u201cRobert Kiyosaki is constantly calling a bear market, and he is wrong, and Peter Schiff has been calling gold up for a long time,\u201d said Tuttle. In Schiff\u2019s case, it eventually worked\u2014but more because of timing and luck than brilliance.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you say gold is going to go up every year, and one year it does well, does that make you a genius? I would argue it doesn\u2019t,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Fame as financial fuel<\/h3>\n

Wall Street is full of one-hit wonders whose early success grants them enduring influence.<\/p>\n

\u201cMost of the time, they don\u2019t risk their money,\u201d said Sosnoff. \u201cIf they have one big win one year, they\u2019re set. Their reputation is made.\u201d<\/p>\n

John Paulson<\/a>, who famously made $15 billion betting against subprime mortgages, fits that mold, as do figures like Ralph Acampora<\/a>, who called the 1990s bull market, and Paul Tudor Jones<\/a>, who predicted the 1987 crash.<\/p>\n

Other famous short sellers have stumbled. Jim Chanos<\/a>, known for shorting Enron, closed his Kynikos fund in late 2023 after his Tesla bet went wrong. Bill Ackman<\/a> lost roughly $1 billion betting against Herbalife in 2018, despite previously scoring a massive win betting against mortgage insurers during the financial crisis.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, fame often matters more than accuracy.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe live in a world where celebrities (movie, social media) have megaphones, and Michael is a celebrity because of the movie,\u201d NYU Stern professor Aswath Damodaran<\/a> told Observer. \u201cPut simply, I will wager that most people who follow his advice (good or bad) are doing so because they liked the movie, think he is Christian Bale or like Batman, rather than because they read his treatises on Nvidia or Palantir. \u201c<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t mean Burry lacks insight. \u201cMichael actually is a good macro thinker and often willing to break away from the herd,\u201d Damodaran added. \u201cBut so are many other smart investors who never get noticed.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n