{"id":20688,"date":"2026-01-29T22:40:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T22:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2026\/01\/29\/two-forces-that-could-push-gold-past-10000-this-year\/"},"modified":"2026-01-29T22:40:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T22:40:07","slug":"two-forces-that-could-push-gold-past-10000-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2026\/01\/29\/two-forces-that-could-push-gold-past-10000-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Two Forces That Could Push Gold Past $10,000 This Year"},"content":{"rendered":"
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After breaking $5,000, bullion bulls are eyeing $10,000 as macroeconomic and political risks intensify. Unsplash<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Gold has climbed roughly 90 percent over the past year, and many see the rally as far from over. After breaching $5,000 for the first time on Monday following Trump\u2019s threat of 100 percent tariffs on Canada, some analysts believe bullion could hit $10,000 by the end of the year. Gold is expected to gain further as inflationary pressures, the possibility of larger-than-expected interest rate cuts, and growing political turmoil weigh on the dollar.<\/p>\n

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What\u2019s behind gold\u2019s recent surge?<\/h3>\n

Beyond sticky inflation and lingering fears of a U.S. recession\u2014now compounded by fresh concerns over a potential government shutdown\u2014the weakening dollar has prompted investors to sell Treasury bills in favor of gold. At the same time, central banks around the world are hoarding bullion amid rising fears that Washington\u2019s worsening fiscal deficit\u2014and similar problems in other countries\u2014could undermine governments\u2019 ability to service their ballooning debt.<\/p>\n

As of last November, top buyers, including Poland, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and China, had purchased a combined 297 tons of gold, according to the industry lobby group the World Gold Council (WGC). Meanwhile, the U.S.\u2019s increasingly volatile foreign policy, most recently punctuated by its campaign to acquire Greenland, is fueling what some investors describe as the \u201cSell America\u201d trade.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cUnchecked fiscal debt creation continues to erode confidence in fiat currencies, while the U.S. dollar has weakened as U.S. exceptionalism fades and capital begins to rotate elsewhere,\u201d Denmark\u2019s Saxo Bank said in a note Wednesday.<\/p>\n

Could gold reach $10,000 this year?<\/h3>\n
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In its Outrageous Predictions report last December, Saxo outlined two technological and macroeconomic tailwinds that could drive gold to $10,000. First, it suggested quantum computers could eventually become powerful enough to crack Bitcoin\u2019s encrypted wallets\u2014what the bank calls \u201cQ-Day\u201d\u2014allowing thieves to steal billions. \u201cImagine what happens if Q-Day suddenly arrives in 2026\u2026Crypto collapses, gold screams to five figures; every bank and government scrambles to rebuild trust\u2026,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n

Second, if U.S.-China tensions escalate, China may \u201ctest the monetary order\u201d by rolling out a \u201cgold-linked\u201d offshore yuan for international trade settlements, effectively ditching the dollar as its reserve currency and sending it to new lows, the bank said.<\/p>\n

Mark Connors, an independent consultant who studies the relationship between digital assets and gold, said the second scenario is already playing out to some extent\u2014at least among countries hit by U.S. sanctions that are increasingly using bullion to pay for trade.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cI see [the possibility of gold reaching] $7,000 to $8,000 this year as non-G10 countries continue to buy gold and nations already using it for settling trade continue to do so,\u201d he told Observer. \u201cRussia, China and African countries like Nigeria are already using gold to settle sanctioned oil purchases.\u201d<\/p>\n

Connors also expects institutional investors to begin accumulating gold as they seek higher and more stable returns. \u201cEndowments and pension funds have liabilities,\u201d he said. \u201cA 4 percent return on your dollar investments (through Treasury bonds) is not great.\u201d These institutions typically invest in U.S. government bonds, such as the 10-year Treasury, to fund educational initiatives or retirement payouts. But with the 10-year yielding around 4 percent and inflation running near 3.5 percent annually, real returns are shrinking.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Connors said gold could eventually reach $10,000, though not because of Q-Day, which he does not expect to materialize anytime soon \u201cas quantum computers don\u2019t yet have the processing power\u201d to hack Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s possible because we have more than doubled [gold\u2019s price] since March of 2024 and the same tailwinds\u2014geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, \u2018Sell America\u2019\u2014have accelerated,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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