{"id":2450,"date":"2025-03-25T13:07:47","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T13:07:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2025\/03\/25\/the-decline-of-originality-in-hollywood-a-look-at-the-numbers\/"},"modified":"2025-03-25T13:07:51","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T13:07:51","slug":"the-decline-of-originality-in-hollywood-a-look-at-the-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalgunowner.org\/index.php\/2025\/03\/25\/the-decline-of-originality-in-hollywood-a-look-at-the-numbers\/","title":{"rendered":"The Decline of Originality in Hollywood: a Look at the Numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"
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TV series and movies based on pre-existing IPs are more commercially successful than new-to-screen concepts. Nils Huenerfuerst\/Unsplash<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The film and television ecosystem revolves around intellectual property (IP)\u2014anything based on pre-existing material such as comic books, novels, video games, podcasts and musicals and including remakes, reboots, revivals, prequels, sequels and spinoffs. This IP-driven industry is propelled forward on the back of its inertia. As much as your Film Twitter bubble and TikTok comments section blame Hollywood for the perceived death of originality, the unvarnished truth remains: the entertainment industry simply gives people what they want. Audiences vote with their wallets, and originality and new-to-screen concepts have lost in a landslide over the last 15 years.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Don\u2019t hate the player, hate the game.<\/span><\/p>\n

Newness can absolutely still break out in a big way (see: <\/span>John Wick<\/span><\/i>, <\/span>The White Lotus<\/span><\/i><\/a>, etc.) to become valuable IP themselves. But the recent misfires of pricey originals and\/or first-time adaptations across the big and small screens slot into a longer-term data trend. This trend suggests Hollywood should invest even <\/span>more <\/span><\/i>into IP to feed the desires of its audience. Blasphemous, I know. But it doesn\u2019t exclude creative ambition.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The widening gap between original and IP-based programming<\/b><\/h3>\n

Hollywood is going through a painful contraction. The number of English language TV series airing each year has dropped every year since 2022; the number of wide theatrical releases from major studios is below pre-Covid levels<\/a>; and annual domestic box office revenue from 2021 to 2024 runs $2 billion to $3 billion behind 2017-2019. The industry needs more attention and more money. That\u2019s where leaning even deeper into IP helps as the audience craves familiarity.<\/p>\n

Between 2020 to 2024, only about 12 percent of new shows and movies were based on pre-existing IP, according to Parrot Analytics. After peaking in 2021, the share of new premieres based on pre-existing IP trended downward for both shows and movies. What does this mean? IP-based TV series and movies don\u2019t account for a major share of the overall supply\u2014yet both punch far above their weight commercially.<\/p>\n

Thirteen of the 30 most-watched titles on streaming (licensed series, original series and movies) in the U.S. in 2024 were based on pre-existing material, according to <\/span>Nielsen<\/a>. This includes seven of the 10 most-watched streaming originals, including Netflix\u2019s Bridgerton <\/i>and Amazon\u2019s Fallout<\/i>. Of the top 66 movies to earn at least $100 million domestically in the last three years, 47 (71 percent) were a part of an established franchise, per analyst <\/span>Entertainment Strategy Guy<\/span><\/a> (whose newsletter I couldn\u2019t recommend highly enough). ESG points out that just three of the top 50 domestic grossers in that span (<\/span>Elemental<\/span><\/i>, <\/span>Migration<\/span><\/i>, <\/span>Nope<\/span><\/i>) were <\/span>completely<\/span> original non-franchise films that weren\u2019t based on real life events or adapted from source material (though <\/span>Oppenheimer <\/span><\/i>and <\/span>The Sound of Freedom <\/span><\/i>were, they still qualify as new-to-screen concepts).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Now is a good time to clarify that we are specifically looking at high-performing titles. Why? Because films that barely register at the box office or TV shows that fail to capture significant tune-in do not move the needle. I loved Sundance Channel\u2019s <\/span>Rectify <\/span><\/i>and Tim Blake Nelson\u2019s boxing movie <\/span>Bang Bang<\/span><\/i>, but you\u2019d struggle to find five people outside the entertainment industry to discuss them with.<\/span><\/p>\n

Interestingly, the global demand share for IP-based movies has fallen slightly over the last five years, while the demand share for IP-based TV series has grown. Yet, IP remains overrepresented among the top ranked titles\u2014and that\u2019s not an accident. If we look at the 100 most in-demand titles each year, around 40 to 50 percent of the top 100 <\/span>TV shows and 70 to 80 percent of the top 100 movies are based on pre-existing IP, per Parrot Analytics.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fresh approaches to familiarity<\/b><\/h3>\n

Further embracing intellectual property does not automatically mean homogenizing programming across film and TV. The tone, style and point of view largely depend on the <\/span>creatives calling the shots.<\/span><\/a> New-to-screen hits can emerge from all manner of sources, providing diverse arrays of potential storytelling approaches.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sony (SONY)<\/a>, which owns PlayStation, has helped reverse the trend of video game adaptations in recent years. HBO\u2019s <\/span>The Last of Us <\/span><\/i>represents the rare breed of elevated prestige genre fare that also delivers massive ratings. It\u2019s smart but broad. Peacock\u2019s <\/span>Twisted Metal <\/span><\/i>occupies the opposite end of the post-apocalyptic spectrum as a wacky action-fueled dark comedy. <\/span>Uncharted <\/span><\/i>wasn\u2019t my cup of tea, but it made more than $400 million while theaters were still recovering from the pandemic. Universal\u2019s Illumination will surely build out more animated Nintendo adaptations following <\/span>The Super Mario Bros. Movie<\/span><\/i>\u2019s success.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Filmmaker Jon M. Chu<\/a> has leveraged lively Broadway musicals to deliver a critically acclaimed Covid-era flop in <\/span>In The Heights <\/span><\/i>and the breakout franchise-launching blockbuster <\/span>Wicked<\/span><\/i>. (I may or may not be destroying my neighbor\u2019s ears with my butchered renditions of \u201cDefying Gravity\u201d right now). <\/span>Hamilton <\/span><\/i>attracted more than <\/span>2.8 million U.S. households<\/span><\/a> in its first 12 days on Disney+. Though skepticism seems warranted, toy company Mattel is <\/span>developing<\/span><\/a> 19 movies (!)<\/a> after <\/span>Barbie <\/span><\/i>demonstrated how a unique filmmaker-driven vision paired with atypical IP can succeed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Even 2024\u2019s most-watched streaming originals run the gamut of IP and tone:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n