A CIA assessment presented to Trump administration officials this week reportedly found that Iran still possesses roughly 70% of its prewar missile stockpile even after weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
The Islamic regime also retains about 75% of its mobile launchers, according to a report from The Washington Post. An intelligence source familiar with the analysis confirmed its existence to The Daily Wire.
American intelligence officials believe Tehran has managed to reopen underground storage facilities, repair damaged missiles, and continue assembling weapons that were near completion before the conflict began.
Before the war, Iran was believed to possess roughly 2,500 missiles and thousands of drones, according to the Post. Despite launching repeated attacks against Israel, neighboring Arab countries, and U.S. military sites in the region, much of that arsenal appears to remain intact.
The findings appear to conflict with comments President Donald Trump made on Wednesday, when he said Iran’s missile capabilities had been largely “decimated.”
“Their missiles are mostly decimated, they have some, they have probably 18, 19 percent,” Trump said in the Oval Office. “Not a lot by comparison to what they had.”
Iran fired roughly 650 missiles at Israel during the latest conflict and another 549 ballistic missiles at the United Arab Emirates, including several launched this week despite a ceasefire remaining in effect. According to the UAE Ministry of Defense, the attacks have killed 13 people and injured 227 others.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell defended the administration’s handling of the conflict.
“Operation Epic Fury was an overwhelming success, with our forces executing the mission with unmatched precision and achieving every objective set by the President from the outset,” Parnell said in a statement provided to The Daily Wire. “This success follows Operation Midnight Hammer last year, which completely obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities and demonstrated exactly what American military strength looks like.”
One U.S. official cited by the Post warned that Iran may be more capable of enduring a prolonged conflict than the CIA’s assessment suggests.
“The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance” inside Iran, the official said. “Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”
The CIA assessment also found Iran may be able to withstand the current U.S. naval blockade for several more months, though the restrictions have sharply reduced oil exports and strained the regime’s economy.
Still, the blockade has sharply reduced Iran’s oil exports and placed mounting pressure on the regime’s economy. Experts say Tehran’s remaining options are limited: consume excess oil domestically, store it, or shut down production altogether — each carrying major economic consequences. Production shutdowns, in particular, can permanently damage oil wells and reduce long-term output.
During active fighting with the United States — but before the blockade fully took hold — Iran continued exporting crude through its illicit “ghost fleet,” averaging roughly 2.1 million barrels per day between April 1 and April 13, consistent with prewar levels, according to The Wall Street Journal. After the blockade intensified, exports reportedly fell to approximately 567,000 barrels per day.
The regime’s desperation became increasingly visible in recent weeks. According to United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), Tehran recently reactivated the Nasha, a derelict 30-year-old tanker that had sat idle for years, repurposing it to store oil offshore. Satellite imagery reportedly showed the vessel loading crude near Kharg Island on April 26 before departing days later.
The White House disputed suggestions that the military campaign had fallen short.
“During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement to the Post. “Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States Military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports. The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”
Meanwhile, the United States and Iran are reportedly moving closer to a potential agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, though Iran has yet to respond to the Trump administration’s latest offer. The proposed framework is a one-page plan that would formally declare the war over and begin a 30-day negotiation period focused on Iran’s nuclear program, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and reopening the vital shipping lane.
